MPL ID S17 Tiebreaker Scenario

We finally arrived at the last week of MPL ID S17‘s regular season, where at least seven teams are still competing for the last 5 playoff slots.

This is the moment where every result counts, so every team will have to put their A-game if they want to qualify for the playoffs.

It doesn’t help with the fact that this season is already the most competitive ever. We probably said that in every season, but with a possibility of a 6-man tiebreaker scenario, the results will be determined by the last game.

Let’s take a look how each team could qualify for MPL ID S17’s playoff, as well as the rare 6-man tiebreaker scenario.

Table of Contents

MPL ID S17 Tiebreaker Scenario

Dewa United

If DEWA wins 2-0 against BTR, they will secure a spot in the playoffs and also qualify two other teams: EVOS and TLID.
If DEWA only wins 2-1 against BTR, they still advance to the playoffs and also qualify EVOS. Meanwhile, TLID still has to fight for itself.
If they beat BTR, DEWA United still has a chance to secure a spot in the Upper Bracket. However, DEWA must also win their final match against RRQ or have a better point total than TLID, as both teams have two matches remaining in Week 9.

Team Liquid ID

If DEWA loses to BTR and TLID beats Alter Ego, TLID will automatically qualify for the playoffs.
If DEWA beats BTR 2-0, TLID will also automatically qualify.
If DEWA beats BTR 2-1, TLID will only need one more game point to qualify when they face Alter Ego.
They can still compete for a spot in the Upper Bracket against DEWA.

EVOS Esports

If DEWA beats BTR (2-0 or 2-1), EVOS automatically advances to the playoffs.
If DEWA loses, EVOS will still have to wait for the results of the next match and hope that TLID beats AE to secure their spot.

Geek Fam

Geek Fam needs to win their match against TLID on Day 2 to secure a spot in the playoffs.
If Geek loses to TLID, they must win their final match against NAVI. Even then, Geek’s chances of advancing to the playoffs will still depend on the results of other teams.

Alter Ego

If AE beats TLID on Day 1, their chances of making the playoffs are wide open.
If AE also beats RRQ, they’ll secure a spot in the playoffs, and there’s even a chance they could make the upper bracket, depending on the results of other teams’ matches.
If AE loses to both TLID and RRQ, AE can still secure a “conditional” playoffs spot based on the results of other teams’ matches, especially if NAVI loses to Geek and BTR suffers a more decisive defeat than AE did in Week 9.

Bigetron by Vitality

If BTR wins against DEWA on Day 1, they must still defeat ONIC to secure a spot in the playoffs.
If BTR loses to ONIC, their chances of advancing to the playoffs will depend on other teams.
If BTR loses to DEWA on Day 1, they are not yet eliminated, and their fate will depend on the results of other teams such as NAVI, Alter Ego, and Geek Fam.
If BTR loses to both DEWA and ONIC, BTR must hope that AE loses to TLID and RRQ by a wider margin and that NAVI loses to Geek in the final match.
If both BTR and AE lose 0-2 in their last two matches, and NAVI also loses to Geek, BTR advances to the playoffs because they have the head-to-head advantage over AE.

Natus Vincere

NAVI must hope that the other team in 6th place does not exceed 7 match points.
NAVI must win their final match against GEEK to remain at 7 match points, while hoping that at least two of the three teams—BTR, AE, and GEEK—do not win in Week 9 in order to qualify for the playoffs based on their head-to-head advantage over all three.

6-man Tiebreaker Scenario

And now, we’re finally addressing the 6-man tiebreaker scenario where 6 teams will go into head-to-head because of a specific condition where those six teams will achieve the exact same number of match points.

To achieve this specific scenario, the match results for the ninth week will have to be exactly as follows:

Day 1

BTR 2-0 DEWA
TLID 0-2 AE

Day 2

GEEK 2-0 TLID
AE 0-2 RRQ
BTR 0-2 ONIC

Day 3

RRQ 2-0 DEWA
ONIC 2-0 EVOS
NAVI 2-0 GEEK

With these results, six teams will have exactly 8 match points at the end of the regular season. Now, how will the final result unfold? It will all be determined by head-to-head statistics.

With the tiebreaker decided by the net game win, it turns out we actually have a double 3-man tiebreaker. The teams are separated by net game wins: DEWA, EVOS, and GEEK will have 1 net game, while AE, BTR, and TLID will have -3 net games.

It’s interesting to see how this tiebreaker will unfold. What do you think?